<div id="subtitle">Jeff Haney crunches the numbers to help bettors pick the right casino</div><div><p> HOUSE EDGE</p><p>Charting the house edge in 2008 World Series future books (the bigger the house edge, the worse it is for gamblers):</p><p>Casino

House edge</p><p>Las Vegas Hilton
28 percent</p><p>Cal Neva 32 percent</p><p>Palms

35 percent</p><p>Venetian
36 percent</p><p>Wynn

37 percent</p><p>South Point

47 percent</p><p>Plaza

47 percent</p><p>Coast/Boyd 49 percent</p><p>Harrah’s/Caesars
51 percent</p><p>Station Casinos
51 percent</p><p>Leroy’s
51 percent</p><p>MGM Mirage

52 percent</p><p>All other factors being equal, baseball bettors looking to invest a few dollars on their team to win the World Series this year will find the most value at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.</p><p>They can expect the least bang for their buck at MGM Mirage properties, according to a survey by the Sun of the World Series championship odds at 12 major Las Vegas sports books.</p><p>We calculated the theoretical hold percentage — or house edge — of the casinos’ World Series future books, or the listings of odds on each major league team to win the 2008 title.</p><p>Contrary to what outsiders or nongamblers might think, there is no single “Las Vegas line” on a team’s odds to win the World Series. Take the reigning champion Boston Red Sox, who are favored to repeat. They can be found at odds of 5-2 at the Plaza, but also at odds of 5-1 at Boyd/Coast properties — a 100 percent better return for gamblers.</p><p>House edge expresses, as a percentage, the amount of money a sports book is expected to keep after paying out winning wagers.</p><p>The lower the house edge, the more favorable it is for bettors. The higher the house edge, the worse it is for bettors. (See “Determining house edge” for the formula online at lasvegassun.com.)</p><p>House edge is a useful tool because it provides an overall picture of how attractive a future book’s odds are, from top to bottom. A casino could offer extremely low odds on a particular team, but still give gamblers a fair shake by raising the prices on other teams. A high house edge, however, indicates a casino is offering poor odds throughout its future book.</p><p>The Las Vegas Hilton is employing a 28 percent theoretical hold percentage in its World Series future book, the best in the city from a gambler’s perspective. Hilton oddsmakers manage the future book aggressively, routinely raising prices on some teams whenever the odds fall on others to maintain competitive prices across the board. One highlight is the Los Angeles Angels at 14-1, nearly 300 percent better than the 5-1 found at several other properties in town.</p><p>Although it’s a minor consideration, it doesn’t hurt that Hilton oddsmakers do not cap long shots at 150-1 or so, as some of their competitors do. They’re offering 300-1 on a couple of teams and 500-1 on the Orioles.</p><p>The Cal Neva sports books also scored well in the survey, with a house edge of 32 percent. Based in Reno, Cal Neva has several Southern Nevada outlets, including the Tuscany, Binion’s and the Four Queens. It earned a good grade by offering a lot of solid value on midpriced teams in the range of 30-1 to 50-1.</p><p>The Palms, the Venetian and Wynn Las Vegas also performed well (see accompanying chart) before the rest of the scores drifted into mediocrity. The house edges of seven major sports books were bunched in the lackluster range of 47 percent to 52 percent, with MGM Mirage bringing up the rear.</p><p>MGM Mirage was hampered in the survey partly because its oddsmakers drastically lowered the odds on a handful of teams but failed to raise the prices on other teams enough to compensate.</p><p>For example, the Tigers are listed at 2.8-1 at MGM Mirage properties (they call it “14-5,” but they can’t fool me), the Cubs at 7-2, the Dodgers at 6-1 and the White Sox at 10-1. At those prices, oddsmakers are essentially announcing they don’t want any more money on those teams. Oblige them.</p><p>Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.</p><p> Odds to win 2008 World Series:</p><p>(Las Vegas Hilton)</p><p>Red Sox

9-2</p><p>Mets

5-1</p><p>Yankees
6-1</p><p>Tigers
6-1</p><p>Cubs

7-1</p><p>Indians
10-1</p><p>Angels
14-1</p><p>Phillies

20-1</p><p>Dodgers

25-1</p><p>Blue Jays

30-1</p><p>Padres
30-1</p><p>Rockies 30-1</p><p>Brewers 25-1</p><p>Braves
30-1</p><p>Diamondbacks

30-1</p><p>Mariners

35-1</p><p>White Sox

40-1</p><p>Rays

50-1</p><p>Reds

50-1</p><p>Twins
60-1</p><p>Astros
75-1</p><p>Cardinals
75-1</p><p>Athletics

100-1</p><p>Rangers

100-1</p><p>Giants 100-1</p><p>Marlins

100-1</p><p>Pirates

150-1</p><p>Royals 300-1</p><p>Nationals

300-1</p><p>Orioles

500-1</p><p>The skinny: The odds on the Mets dropped to 5-1 after opening at 13-1 shortly after last year’s World Series, largely as a result of New York’s acquisition of left-hander and two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana .. The odds on the Tigers dropped to 6-1 from 9-1 as the former perennial losers appear</p><p>to have turned the organization around . The odds on the Cubs dropped to 7-1 from an opener of 13-1. Future-book odds on the Cubs are always short in Las Vegas sports books, but this year bettors’ optimism is grounded in more than just hope the Cubs will mark the 100th anniversary of their last World Series championship with another title .. Among teams whose chances are going the other direction, according to oddsmakers and the betting public, the Athletics’ odds stand at 100-1 after opening at</p><p>40-1 — and hitting as high as 200-1 — as untested Oakland figures to be at least a couple of years away from contending . The odds on the Twins rose to 60-1 from 20-1 after the Santana trade .. The odds on the Angels drifted up to 14-1 from an opener</p><p>of 9-1 because . well, hmmm, because, ahh, probably because the Mariners look decent in that division — but come to think of it, 14-1 on the Angels looks like a good price .. The odds on the Cardinals rose to 75-1 from 25-1 St. Louis looks like a team in transition after trading Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds and having to deal with some injuries in the starting rotation.</p><p>Division championship odds (Palms)</p><p>NL East</p><p>Mets 1-2</p><p>Phillies 3-1</p><p>Braves
9-2</p><p>Marlins
30-1</p><p>Nationals 30-1</p><p>NL Central</p><p>Cubs

2-3</p><p>Brewers
12-5</p><p>Cardinals

15-2</p><p>Astros
19-2</p><p>Reds

8-1</p><p>Pirates
35-1</p><p>NL West</p><p>Dodgers

11-10</p><p>Rockies 3-1</p><p>Diamondbacks

14-5</p><p>Padres
4-1</p><p>Giants
25-1</p><p>AL East</p><p>Red Sox

5-6</p><p>Yankees
even</p><p>Blue Jays

17-2</p><p>Orioles 50-1</p><p>Rays

30-1</p><p>AL Central</p><p>Tigers
5-7</p><p>Indians
7-5</p><p>White Sox

15-2</p><p>Twins
9-1</p><p>Royals
30-1</p><p>AL West</p><p>Angels

5-9</p><p>Mariners 3-2</p><p>Athletics

7-1</p><p>Rangers

14-1</p><p>The skinny: The Santana trade was good for the Mets and bad for division rival Philadelphia, as the odds on the Phillies went to 3-1 from an opener of 9-1 and the price on New York dropped to 1-2 from even money .. The Giants’ offense</p><p>looks anemic post-Barry Bonds and so do their betting odds, which have risen to 25-1 from an opener of 8-1 . As the Red Sox and Yankees fight it out for supremacy in the AL East, as usual, the odds on the Blue Jays drifted up to 17-2 from 11-2 ..</p><p>Seattle’s odds have come down steadily from an opener of 7-2 to 2-1 to 3-2 as bettors suspect Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez could lead the M’s to the playoffs .. There’s no apparent interest whatsoever in the Marlins (30-1 after opening 8-1), Orioles</p><p>(50-1 from 18-1) or Pirates (35-1 from 15-1)</p><p>Major league home run champion</p><p>(Partial list, top contenders from the Palms)</p><p>Alex Rodriguez
3-1</p><p>Prince Fielder
15-2</p><p>Ryan Howard

4-1</p><p>Albert Pujols

17-2</p><p>Mark Teixeira
16-1</p><p>Adam Dunn

11-1</p><p>Carlos Pena

15-1</p><p>Matt Holliday
10-1</p><p>Alfonso Soriano 11-1</p><p>David Ortiz

12-1</p><p>Ryan Braun

10-1</p><p>Miguel Cabrera
18-1</p><p>Travis Hafner
20-1</p><p>Over/under 2008</p><p>regular-season home runs</p><p>(Las Vegas Hilton odds, a sampling of many players on the board)</p><p>Ryan Howard

44.5</p><p>Alex Rodriguez
43.5</p><p>Prince Fielder
39.5</p><p>Adam Dunn

38.5</p><p>Mark Teixeira
35.5</p><p>David Ortiz

34.5</p><p>Matt Holliday
34.5</p><p>Albert Pujols

34.5</p><p>Miguel Cabrera
34.5</p><p>The skinny: A-Rod led the majors last season with 54 home runs, a result that paid off bettors at 12-1. He beat out 2007 favorites Howard (6-1), Pujols (7-1) and Ortiz (8-1). This year the odds on Rodriguez dropped to 3-1 from an opener of 4-1 .. Fielder was runner-up with 50 homers, although his odds drifted up to 15-2 from an opener of 9-2 . Bettors don’t expect a drop-off in production from Howard (47 homers last season), driving his odds down to 4-1 from 8-1 .. Pena was</p><p>fourth in the majors with 46 homers in 2007, followed by Dunn with 40 . There was a big move in the odds on Ryan Braun of Milwaukee, the NL rookie of the year who finished with 34 homers in only 113 games .. The odds on Alfonso Soriano have also</p><p>dropped, from 20-1 to 11-1, as Cubs manager Lou Piniella experiments with his place in the lineup, most recently inserting the former leadoff hitter into the No 5 spot.</p><p>Pitcher to have the most wins</p><p>(Partial list, top contenders from the Palms)</p><p>Josh Beckett

10-1</p><p>Justin Verlander

11-2</p><p>Chien-Ming Wang 5-1</p><p>Johan Santana

13-2</p><p>Brandon Webb

8-1</p><p>Felix Hernandez
8-1</p><p>Carlos Zambrano
11-1</p><p>Roy Halladay

11-1</p><p>Dontrelle Willis

14-1</p><p>John Smoltz

15-1</p><p>Chad Billingsley

15-1</p><p>Daisuke Matsuzaka

15-1</p><p>John Lackey

15-1</p><p>Dan Haren

17-1</p><p>Fausto Carmona
17-1</p><p>Roy Oswalt

17-1</p><p>Erik Bedard

18-1</p><p>Over/under 2008</p><p>regular-season wins</p><p>(Las Vegas Hilton odds, a sampling of many players on the board)</p><p>Josh Beckett 17.5</p><p>Brandon Webb

16.5</p><p>Justin Verlander

16.5</p><p>Jake Peavy

16.5</p><p>Chien-Ming Wang 16.5</p><p>C.C. Sabathia
15.5</p><p>Roy Halladay

15.5</p><p>Carlos Zambrano 15.5</p><p>Roy Oswalt

15.5</p><p>Erik Bedard

15</p><p>Daisuke Matsuzaka 15</p><p>The skinny: Despite a recent stint on the disabled list, Beckett remains a logical leading contender after leading the majors with 20 wins last season .. Wang (19 wins) and</p><p>Verlander (18) also had their odds drop after they each opened at 10-1 . Webb, the 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner, had a rough spring training but his opening odds of 18-1 did look a little high .. Bettors are looking for a breakout season from</p><p>Hernandez after he went 14-7 a year ago, driving his odds down to 8-1 from an opener of 20-1 . The most popular (former) long shots to lead the majors are Smoltz, who opened at 75-1, and Billingsley, who opened at 50-1.</p><p>Over/under season victories</p><p>(Consensus line)</p><p>Mets 93.5</p><p>Phillies

87.5</p><p>Braves
84.5</p><p>Nationals

71.5</p><p>Marlins 68.5</p><p>Cubs

87.5</p><p>Brewers 84.5</p><p>Reds

79</p><p>Cardinals 76.5</p><p>Astros
76.5</p><p>Pirates 70.5</p><p>Dodgers 87</p><p>Diamondbacks

86.5</p><p>Padres
84.5</p><p>Rockies 82.5</p><p>Giants
72</p><p>Red Sox
94</p><p>Yankees
93.5</p><p>Blue Jays

85.5</p><p>Rays

75</p><p>Orioles
66</p><p>Tigers

93</p><p>Indians
89.5</p><p>White Sox

79</p><p>Twins

75</p><p>Royals

72.5</p><p>Angels

91.5</p><p>Mariners

85.5</p><p>Rangers 76</p><p>Athletics 73</p><p>The skinny: The rebuilding Orioles, projected as perhaps the worst team in baseball, actually saw an uptick in their season-win total to a consensus line of 66 after opening at 64.5 at the Hilton in February .. The White Sox had a drop in their season-win total as bettors appeared unconvinced they will reverse their fall from grace after winning the 2005 World Series . Also seeing slight drops were the Giants (opening line: 73 wins), Rangers (77) and Nationals (72.5).</p><p>Over/under 2008</p><p>regular-season saves</p><p>(Las Vegas Hilton odds)</p><p>Francisco Rodriguez

39.5</p><p>Jonathan Papelbon

38.5</p><p>Bobby Jenks

37.5</p><p>J.J. Putz

36.5</p><p>Mariano Rivera 36.5</p><p>Trevor Hoffman

36.5</p><p>Joe Nathan

35.5</p><p>Jose Valverde
32.5</p><p>The skinny: Valverde had a major league-best 47 saves for Arizona before being traded to Houston .. Nathan recently signed a four-year, $47 million deal with Minnesota, and the Angels’ Rodriguez could be</p><p>pushing for a similar contract He can become a free agent after the 2008 season.</p><p>2008 major league regular-season mosts by any player</p><p>(Las Vegas Hilton odds, a sampling of major categories)</p><p>Home runs 51.5</p><p>Stolen bases

63.5</p><p>RBIs 146.5</p><p>Wins
20.5</p><p>Losses
18</p><p>Strikeouts 240.5</p><p>The skinny: Each figure is similar to the one posted before the 2007 season, when perhaps the most surprising result came in stolen bases, which went well “over” the total when Jose Reyes of the Mets finished with 78 steals.</p><p>(All odds are subject to change or being taken off the betting board at any time.)</p><img src="http://admatch-syndication.mochila.com/images/ad.gif?aid=17278877&bid=informcom" /></div><div id="copyright"><div>

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